How not to be wrong: the power of mathematical thinking

When am I going to use this? ; Part I. Linearity. Less like Sweden ; Straight locally, curved globally ; Everyone is obese ; How much is that in dead Americans? ; More pie than plate --

Part II. Inference. The Baltimore stockbroker and the Bible Code ; Dead fish don't read minds ; Reductio ad unlikely ; The international journal of haruspicy ; Are you there, God? It's me, Bayesian inference --

Part III. Expectation. What to expect when you're expecting to win the lottery ; Miss more planes! ; Where the train tracks meet --

Part IV. Regression. The triumph of mediocrity ; Galton's ellipse ; Does lung cancer make you smoke cigarettes? --

Part V. Existence. There is no such thing as public opinion ; "Out of nothing I have created a strange new universe" ; How to be right.

When am I going to use this? --

Part I. Linearity : Less like Sweden --

Straight locally, curved globally --

Everyone is obese --

How much is that in dead Americans? --

More pie than plate --

Part II. Inference : The Baltimore stockbroker and the Bible Code --

Dead fish don't read minds --

Reductio ad unlikely --

The international journal of haruspicy --

Are you there, God? It's me, Bayesian inference --

Part III. Expectation : What to expect when you're expecting to win the lottery --

Miss more planes! --

Where the train tracks meet --

Part IV. Regression : The triumph of mediocrity --

Galton's ellipse --

Does lung cancer make you smoke cigarettes? --

Part V. Existence : There is no such thing as public opinion --

"Out of nothing I have created a strange new universe" --

How to be right.